Chad Nears Potential Membership in Alliance of Sahel States Amid Strategic Shifts

N’Djamena, Chad – February 23, 2025

Chad appears to be on the brink of joining the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a regional military alliance comprising Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, as speculation mounts following President Mahamat Idriss Deby’s recent visit to Burkina Faso. This potential move, underscored by Chad’s recent expulsion of French forces, signals a significant geopolitical realignment in the Sahel, distancing the country from traditional Western partnerships and aligning it with a bloc seeking greater regional autonomy.

Background on the Alliance of Sahel States

Formed in September 2023, the AES—also known as the Liptako-Gourma Charter—emerged as a mutual defense pact among Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, all governed by military juntas following coups. The alliance aims to address the Sahel’s escalating security challenges, particularly jihadist insurgencies that have destabilized the region since 2003. These countries withdrew from the France-backed G5 Sahel alliance in 2022 and 2023, leading to its dissolution, and have since prioritized endogenous solutions to bolster regional stability (Alliance of Sahel States - Wikipedia).

The AES has made strides toward deeper integration, including plans for a common central bank, a new currency to replace the CFA franc, and joint infrastructure projects for agricultural and energy self-reliance. On February 22, 2025, the AES ministers officially launched the confederation’s flag, signaling a commitment to a unified regional identity (Alliance of Sahel States - Wikipedia).

Chad’s Strategic Pivot

Historically, Chad has been a key ally of France, hosting approximately 1,000 French troops as part of its post-colonial military cooperation. However, in November 2024, Chad announced the termination of its defense pact with France, a decision framed as a “historic turning point” to assert sovereignty and redefine strategic partnerships (Chad ends defence pact with France | Euronews). This was followed by the complete withdrawal of French forces by January 31, 2025, marking the end of France’s military presence in Chad and the broader Sahel region (France ends military presence in Sahel region with handover of last base in Chad | France24).

This shift mirrors actions by AES members, who have also expelled French forces, reflecting a regional trend of reducing Western influence. Chad’s decision was partly triggered by perceived disrespectful remarks from French President Emmanuel Macron in January 2025, prompting Chadian leaders to demand an immediate French withdrawal (Chadian leaders denounce Macron's remarks, order French troops out of Chad this month | VOA News).

Deby’s Visit to Burkina Faso: A Potential Turning Point

On February 21, 2025, President Deby traveled to Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, to attend the 29th Panafrican Film and Television Festival of Ouagadougou (FESPACO), where Chad was the guest of honor. Welcomed warmly by Burkina Faso’s transitional President, Captain Ibrahim Traoré, the visit was officially cultural but has sparked speculation about deeper political implications (Chad President Deby Visits Burkina Faso for FESPACO Film Festival | DNE Africa).

An X post by Hamdy Diouara on February 22, 2025, suggested that Deby’s visit might precede an official announcement of Chad joining the AES, interpreting it as a move away from France and toward regional alliances (X post by Hamdy Diouara). This speculation aligns with reports from April 2024, where Malian officials indicated Chad’s interest in AES membership following a Chadian delegation’s visit to Mali for bilateral and regional cooperation discussions (Africa File, April 18, 2024: Chad is the Kremlin’s Next Target in the Sahel | Institute for the Study of War). During his May 2024 presidential campaign, Deby also signaled openness to new security partners, including Russia, further suggesting a strategic pivot toward AES-aligned nations.

Challenges and Considerations

Unlike AES members, Chad transitioned from a military junta to an elected government following the May 2024 presidential elections, with Deby securing victory. This difference could complicate integration into an alliance dominated by transitional military regimes. However, shared security concerns, such as combating jihadist groups like Boko Haram and ISIL affiliates, provide a strong incentive for Chad to join the AES.

Timeline of Key Developments

Here’s a chronological overview of the key events leading to this potential shift:

Implications for the Sahel Region

Chad’s potential membership in the AES could enhance regional security coordination, particularly in counter-terrorism efforts, given its strategic location and military capabilities. However, it may also strain relations with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and Western powers, as the AES has withdrawn from ECOWAS and adopted an anti-French stance. This move could reshape the Sahel’s security architecture, reinforcing the AES’s goal of self-reliance and sovereignty.

While no official announcement has been made as of February 2025, the combination of Chad’s expulsion of French forces, Deby’s visit to Burkina Faso, and prior expressions of interest strongly suggest that an AES membership announcement may be imminent, marking a new chapter in Sahel geopolitics.