Tensions Escalate: Algeria Expels Moroccan Diplomat Amidst Ongoing Geopolitical Strains

In a move that further complicates the already strained diplomatic relations between Algeria and Morocco, the Algerian government has declared the Moroccan Deputy Consul General in Oran persona non grata, ordering him to leave the country within 48 hours. This decision was made due to alleged "suspicious behavior," although the specifics of this behavior have not been disclosed. The incident is part of a broader context of historical disputes, including the Western Sahara conflict and the closure of the border in 1994.

The relationship between Algeria and Morocco has been marred by recurrent crises since their independence, including the Sand War of 1963 and the Western Sahara War from 1975 to 1991. In August 2021, Algeria severed diplomatic ties with Morocco, accusing it of supporting separatist movements in Algeria and normalizing relations with Israel, which Algeria perceives as a threat to its national security.

As of 2025, tensions persist, with reports indicating increased militarization on both sides. For instance, an analysis by Dragonfly Intelligence dated January 17, 2025, suggests that border skirmishes are reasonably likely this year, although an armed conflict remains highly improbable. Additionally, reports like one from PassBlue dated January 8, 2025, highlight that the Western Sahara conflict, while not the primary driver of tensions, poses a risk of accidental escalation.

The term "suspicious behavior" has not been defined in available sources, limiting understanding of the incident. However, based on precedents, such as the expulsion in 2020 of the Moroccan Consul General in Oran for referring to Algeria as an "enemy country," it is plausible that the Deputy Consul General was involved in actions perceived as provocative or contrary to diplomatic norms. Activities like espionage or offensive public statements could be behind this decision, although this remains speculative without official confirmation.

Current diplomatic relations, marked by an absence of formal dialogue since 2021, could amplify the perception of such actions as hostile. For example, an analysis by Oxford Analytica dated March 10, 2025, notes that Morocco benefits from technological support from the U.S. and Israel, which could fuel suspicions of clandestine activities, while Algeria remains aligned with Russia, increasing tensions.

This expulsion could exacerbate already fragile relations, particularly in a context where both countries seek to project a stable image to attract European investors, as highlighted by the Oxford Analytica report. Measures such as visa restrictions or complications for nationals of both countries, mentioned in the Dragonfly Intelligence analysis, could follow. However, war remains unlikely, as both nations have an interest in avoiding escalation that would harm their economic and regional ambitions.

Summary Table of Recent Relations

To better organize the information, here is a summary table of key events since 2020, based on consulted sources:

Conclusion

The expulsion of the Moroccan Deputy Consul General in Oran by Algeria, while limited to an individual, reflects the persistent tensions between the two nations. Without public details on the "suspicious behavior," it is difficult to predict immediate repercussions, but this incident could further complicate normalization efforts in a context where border skirmishes and diplomatic disputes are anticipated in 2025. Both countries will need to navigate with caution to avoid escalation while maintaining their regional and international interests.

Key Citations

• Ministry of Foreign Affairs Algeria News Diplomacy Services
• Moroccan Ministry of Foreign Affairs Directory
• X post by cgtnafrica
• Dragonfly Intelligence Algeria Morocco Conflict Analysis
• PassBlue Tensions Algeria Morocco Trump Presidency
• Oxford Analytica Morocco Algeria Ties Bleak Prospects